Choosing to comply with the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement. Factors leading to state compliance

Abstract

State compliance with international commitments is uneven. However, the perception of which countries will and will not comply and to what extent can be biased. Some scholars assume that the U.S. will abide by the India-U.S. 123 civil nuclear agreement, which main objective is to supply India with nuclear fuel. At the same time, some other researchers doubt that India would honor its respective commitments, namely, to maintain safeguard measures in its nuclear facilities. The present study expands the knowledge of the factors affecting compliance within the realm of nuclear trade by analyzing a non-binding instrument negotiated between two asymmetrical actors. Drawing on Peter Haas’ compliance theories, the author analyzes the incidence as well as the relevance of international institutional and ideational factors which, in combination with domestic politics and structures, can influence the actor’s decision to comply. The paper’s findings suggest that India can be expected to more fully comply with the provisions of the treaty than the United States. Depending on whether certain institutional or ideational factor intervenes, Washington is either not capable or is not willing to comply. Its will to comply could be affected, inter alia, by important domestic actors concerned with the application of the Hyde Act, as evidenced during the ratification process. Therefore, contrary to the mainstream view, the 123 Agreement neither enables India to achieve energy security nor ends thirty-four years of nuclear isolation.